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Supply and Demand Calculation of Carbide Tool Industry

September 23,2023

Carbide cutting tools have a wide range of applications and are the main cutting tools for machine tool digitization.

Tools are used in machinery manufacturing

Tools for cutting processing are the basic industry in machinery manufacturing and major base areas, accounting for approximately the entire mechanical processing industry.90% of the production volume directly determines the production level of the machinery manufacturing industry. Depending on the material, metal cutting tools can

It is further divided into carbide cutting tools, high speed steel cutting tools, ceramic cutting tools, superhard cutting tools, etc. In fact, it is suitable to do

There are many materials for CNC cutting tools, but from the perspective of performance and application range, cemented carbide has higher hardness,

With its advantages such as wear resistance and toughness, it has a wider range of applications and is the main tool for digital manufacturing.

Demand side: The recovery of the machine tool industry + the increase in CNC rate will drive the recovery of the tool industry. 2017-2019,

Affected by the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, especially the decline in prosperity of the automobile and consumer electronics industries, my country's machine tool market

After three consecutive years of decline. In the first half of 2020, as the epidemic was effectively controlled, my country

The manufacturing industry has recovered rapidly and the machine tool industry has bottomed out, which is expected to drive the recovery of the tool industry. On the other hand, according to the country

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the past ten years, the CNC rate of metal cutting machine tools in my country has increased from 25.8% in 2012.rising to 44.9% in 2021. The continuous improvement of the numerical control rate of machine tools is expected to drive the vigorous development of cemented carbide.exhibition. According to our calculations, assuming that the proportion of cemented carbide in tool consumption increases by 1.5% per year, then in

In 2022, under three scenarios: a year-on-year decrease of 2%, a year-on-year growth of 2%, and a year-on-year growth of 2%.

The market size of cemented carbide cutting tools increased by 150 million yuan, 650 million yuan and 1.16 billion yuan respectively.

Domestic substitution: In the context of manufacturing transformation and upgrading + "epidemic dividend", domestic substitution is accelerating. Chinese cutting knife

The market size experienced a decline from 2012 to 2016, but at the same time it brought an increase in advanced production capacity.

With the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the encouragement and support of national policies, domestic tool companies continue to move towards the mid-to-high-end hard. Since 2017, my country’s dependence on tool imports has begun to decline year by year. In 2020, although the epidemic caused

This has led to the decline of the global economy and the interruption of some industrial supply chains, but it has also bought time for domestic substitution, and downstreamUsers’ recognition of domestic products continues to increase. According to the China Machine Tool and Tool Industry Association, China Customs, Qianzhan Industry

According to data from the Industry Research Institute, the total domestic tool consumption in 2021 will be approximately 43.6 billion yuan, and the consumption of imported tools will be approximately 43.6 billion yuan.was 10.632 billion yuan, and the import dependence dropped to 24.39%, which was compared with the import dependence of 36% in 2016.has dropped significantly. According to our calculations, the current cemented carbide tool market size occupied by

Japan and South Korea is approximately 2.1 billionyuan, assuming that the market share of Japanese and Korean tool brands in China drops to 500 million yuan in the next three years, and that of domestic tool brands

If it completes the replacement of its remaining market share from 2022 to 2024, it is expected to replace Japanese and Korean knives every year on average.

533 million yuan market share, totaling 1.6 billion yuan market share.

Supply side: Companies are scrambling to expand production and are expected to release an output value of 540 million yuan. According to our analysis of China Tungsten High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten

Sorting out the production and expansion plans of four leading companies,Based on the 70% market share of four companies and a price of 6 yuan per piece, then

In 2022, the scale corresponding to the new production capacity on the supply side of carbide CNC inserts in the industry will be 540 million yuan. overall

On the other hand, if domestic tool consumption shrinks in 2022 compared with 2021, carbide CNC inserts will basically

Maintain a balance between supply and demand (demand is slightly greater than supply), and if domestic tool consumption remains the same or increases slightly year-on-year, thenThere will be an obvious pattern of supply exceeding demand.

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